Trinitarian Protestantism, including historic Protestantism, evangelicalism, Pentecostalism, and independent and non-denominational movements, now surpasses Roman Catholicism in terms of worldwide church attendance and is set to overtake Catholicism in total adherents sometime before 2050. The meta-analysis below combines findings from a number of studies, incorporating key data, including attrition rates, conversions, growth rates, and more. The data below is based primarily on explicit, current self-identification, rather than baptismal records.

Estimates of Self-Identified Christians Worldwide in 2025 and 2050

Executive Summary

This document provides estimates of the number of people—and their children–worldwide who explicitly self-identify as Roman Catholics, Protestants (including historical Protestants, evangelicals, Trinitarian Pentecostals, independent/non-denominational Trinitarian Christians, and unaffiliated Trinitarian Christians), and Eastern Orthodox Christians in 2025. The estimates prioritize self-identification over mere affiliation or baptismal records, accounting for disaffiliation and religious switching based on survey data. The global Christian population is estimated at 2.645 billion in 2025.^[1] Percentages are calculated relative to this total. Additionally, estimates for monthly religious service attendance are included, derived from global surveys on religious commitment.

Sources include the Center for the Study of Global Christianity's 2025 report^[1] and Pew Research Center data on self-identification and switching.^[2]

The results reveal that Trinitarian Protestantism, broadly-defined, has overtaken Roman Catholicism in terms of global church attendance (at least once per month) and is set to overtake Catholicism in terms of total worldwide adherents by 2050, and likely earlier. Protestantism will represent roughly half of global Christianity by 2050.

Estimated Number of Self-Identified Adherents Worldwide

Roman Catholics: Approximately 1.15–1.25 billion people self-identify as Roman Catholics in 2025, representing about 43.5–47% of global Christians. This figure adjusts the affiliated count of 1.273 billion downward by approximately 2% to account for disaffiliation, based on global switching rates where 5–12% of raised Catholics leave the faith.^[3] Higher disaffiliation occurs in regions like Europe and Latin America, offset by growth in Africa and Asia.

Protestants (including historical Protestants, evangelicals, Trinitarian Pentecostals, independents, non-denominational Trinitarian Christians, and unaffiliated Trinitarian Christians): Approximately 1.04–1.12 billion people self-identify in this group, representing about 39–42% of global Christians. This combines Protestants (629 million) and Independents (409 million) from mutually exclusive categories to avoid overlap, adjusted downward by 7% for disaffiliation, and includes unaffiliated Trinitarian Christians (151 million).^[1] Evangelicals (self-identified at around 420 million) and Trinitarian Pentecostals (around 634 million) are subsets within these categories.^[4] Oneness Pentecostals (non-Trinitarian) are excluded, classified as marginal Christians.

Eastern Orthodox: Approximately 200–220 million people self-identify as Eastern Orthodox, representing about 7–8% of global Christians. This separates from the total Orthodox figure of 292 million by subtracting Oriental Orthodox (around 72 million).^[1] Disaffiliation adjustments are minimal (around 2%), given high cultural retention in core regions.

The remaining global Christians include Oriental Orthodox and marginal groups, bringing the total to the aforementioned 2.645 billion.^[1]

Estimated Number of Adherents Attending Religious Services at Least Once Per Month

Attendance estimates are based on aggregated global surveys, with rates varying by region (higher in the Global South, lower in Europe/North America). Self-reported data from Pew and other sources indicate:

Roman Catholics: Around 35–44% attend at least monthly, equating to approximately 438–506 million. Rates are high in sub-Saharan Africa (around 70%) but lower in Europe (20–30%).^[5]

Protestants: Around 45–54% attend at least monthly (adjusted downward slightly due to inclusion of unaffiliated Christians with lower attendance rates), equating to approximately 504–560 million. Evangelical and Pentecostal subgroups show higher rates (60–70%), particularly in Africa and Latin America, while unaffiliated average around 20%.^[5]

Eastern Orthodox: Around 26–37% attend at least monthly, equating to approximately 57–75 million. Attendance is low in Russia (10–15%) but higher in Greece and the U.S. (30–40%).^[5]

Global trends show a decline in attendance in developed regions, but growth in the Global South sustains overall figures.^[5]

Current Estimation Summary (2025)

Group	Estimated Self-Identified Adherents	Percentage of Global Christians (2.645B)	Estimated Monthly Attendees
Roman Catholics	1.15–1.25 billion	43.5–47%	438–506 million
Protestants*	1.04–1.12 billion	39–42%	504–560 million
Eastern Orthodox	200–220 million	7–8%	57–75 million

*Includes historical Protestants, evangelicals, Trinitarian Pentecostals, independents, non-denominational Trinitarian Christians, and unaffiliated Trinitarian Christians, using exclusive categories to avoid double-counting.

Future Estimation Summary (2050)

Group	Estimated Self-Identified Adherents	Percentage of Global Christians (3.312B)	Estimated Monthly Attendees
Roman Catholics	1.33–1.45 billion	40–44%	465–638 million
Protestants*	1.48–1.60 billion	45–48%	666–864 million
Eastern Orthodox	220–240 million	7–8%	57–89 million

Note: Projections incorporate growth trends from the Center for the Study of Global Christianity, adjusted for religious switching rates (e.g., net losses from Catholicism to Protestantism and unaffiliated, particularly in Latin America and Africa, as per Pew Research data) and conversions (e.g., gains in Pentecostalism projected to reach ~1 billion by 2050).

CCC

Protestants, Evangelicals, and Pentecostals to Represent Half of Global Christians by 2050